The LTS Hub presents recently published work by NewClimate Institute on the development of LTSs under the Paris Agreement. The seven content tabs below contribute to answer the following guiding questions when developing an LTS in 2020 or thereafter: Show
The Paris Agreement calls for “long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies” (LTSs) but gives little guidance beyond that. Few of these LTSs have been developed so far, and there seems to be a lack of common understanding of what the scope and format of an LTS should be. We propose that LTS encompass eight key elements relating to both the content, and the process of developing an LTS. The eight elements are identified and discussed based on the following literature: CAN Europe (2018), Cox (2019), Ecologic Institute (2017), Levin et al. (2018), Waisman et al. (2019), Williams and Waisman (2017), the World Bank and Ecofys (2019) and WRI (2019) (see Tab 7).
Harmonised revision cycles of NDCs and LTSs allow for improved alignment of climate planningWhile the Paris Agreement and the Katowice Rulebook invite Parties to communicate an LTS to the UNFCCC by 2020, they do not clearly specify whether Parties should update their long-term commitments over time. A one-time submission in 2020 without further revision, however, would dismiss the idea to make an LTS an ongoing visioning exercise informed by latest science as part of continuous planning process in a country over time. The five-year revision cycles for Parties to submit their NDCs to the UNFCCC provide an opportunity to improve the alignment of countries’ long-term visions (LTSs) with their medium-term targets (NDCs). This way, policy makers can ensure that a country’s long-term vision informs the NDC target setting for the medium-term. Without ensuring such consistency, LTSs run the risk of not being adequately mainstreamed into policy and implementation planning. The figure below provides a basic concept on how NDC revision cycles can be informed by the long-term vision over the course of the next ten years. Proposal for harmonised revision cycles of NDCs and LTSs for alignment of climate commitments. Source: LTS Guide to Policymakers, 2020, p. 10The timeline for submission of updated NDCs and the first submissions of LTSs in 2020 gives policy makers an opportunity to use their LTSs to inform their updated medium-term targets. However, current climate policy planning processes at the national level for 2020 do not often account for such alignment between NDCs and LTSs. In many country contexts, the development of LTSs simply will not happen in time to inform the NDC target setting in 2020. For this reason, some updated NDCs may not be informed by upcoming LTSs in 2020. Looking ahead to future revision cycles beyond 2020, policy makers can proactively steer climate policy planning processes – both at the national and sectoral level – to align NDC revisions mandated by the Paris Agreement with updates to the country’s long-term vision outlined in the LTS. For example, policy makers could align processes in a way that LTSs will be updated in regular five-year intervals to inform future NDC submissions. Cyclical long-term planning reduces resources needed to achieve net zero emissionsComparing trajectories that represent the highest possible ambition with current policy or commitment pathways, reveals a gap that can only be closed with additional technical and financial resources (represented by dark blue and red lines respectively in the diagram below). While this gap may seem daunting if viewed as a one-off exercise, more can be done with a more efficient use of resources, if long term-planning is approached as a recurring iterative process (red dotted vertical lines). A long-term planning process can include regular short-term planning cycles, informed by long-term objectives, as described in the previous section. In that way, regular NDC or national climate action planning cycles could provide an opportunity to regularly reassess current policy pathways, and new developments which may affect the range of possible ambition (light blue line). The regular reassessment of these pathways may reveal that it is possible to achieve deeper emission reductions than what might have been previously anticipated from the resources invested in the previous period (yellow line). This can occur, for example, when tipping points for mass diffusion of transformational technologies and practices are reached, and through the resulting spill-over effects of progress between countries. Periodical review of short- and long-term planning and its effect on financial and technical resources need. Source: NDC Update Report 2019, p. 27Technology development is a largely global process; while technological spill-over is context dependent, most solutions are relevant beyond the contexts in which they were originally designed. In turn this means that a few actors can initiate change well beyond their original jurisdiction. This can be observed for renewable energy development, where a few countries have initiated a global trend, but also recently for electric vehicles, where the support of a few jurisdictions such as Norway, China or California have reduced the technical and financial resources needed in second mover countries such as Germany (“reduced financing need” in the figure above). An ongoing iterative process to climate change mitigation planning can help ensure improved alignment with the long-term goals under the Paris Agreement. While there is considerable risk that the trajectories most countries initially identify as their highest possible ambition pathways are not fully Paris compatible, consecutive adjustments of the pathway can close this gap. This logic also demonstrates the importance and attractiveness of early action, since increasing the level of resources invested at an early stage can allow for readjustment of trajectories in a way that significantly reduces resource requirements to move towards the long-term objectives in the future.
The typology introduced in this section aims to acknowledge and account for the different starting points of countries to develop their LTS in 2020. The country-specific starting points can differ both in available human and financial resources to develop an LTS as well as in political leadership and experience in reaching consensus for long-term visions. In this context, the figure below outlines the rationale for three interlinked LTS types, building upon one another: a base version, an intermediate version, and a detailed version. While some countries might opt for a base version for submission to the UNFCCC in 2020 or shortly thereafter, they can explicitly communicate support needs to the international community in order to submit a more substantiated version in future revision cycles. Concept of three levels of comprehensiveness to guide the development of long-term low GHG emission development strategies (LTSs) and respective characteristics. Source: LTS Guide to Policymakers, 2020, p. 13An increasing body of recently published literature identifies key aspects that countries can consider when conceptualising and developing their LTSs in 2020 or thereafter. While most authors acknowledge the relevance of certain aspects in the elaboration of a country’s long-term vision, no common understanding currently exists on how countries can take up these aspects in their LTSs. The table below presents a differentiated approach on how policy makers can address each aspect considering their country’s situation. Policy makers have full flexibility to customise this approach to country-specific circumstances, for example by choosing a suitable level of detail for each listed aspect. Key aspects for consideration in an ongoing LTS development process. Source: LTS Guide to Policymakers, 2020, p. 14
Updating theoretical scenario modelling over time in line with harmonised revision cyclesLong-term scenario analysis on GHG emission pathways until 2050 can provide a theoretical underpinning to inform a country’s long-term vision. Policy makers can use this scenario analysis to set a vision for achieving full decarbonisation across all sectors and perform analysis to evaluate whether the vision is compatible with the Paris Agreement’s temperature limit. The analysis can also directly inform the GHG and non-GHG target setting in line with developed scenarios. The figure below illustrates in a stylised manner how a country can develop long-term scenario pathways in 2020 and subsequently update these before 2025, in time to inform the next NDC review and revision cycle of 2025. A subsequent update could then take place before 2030 to inform the NDC review and revision cycle of 2030 (not displayed in this figure). Updating the theoretical scenario modelling over time in line with harmonised revision cycles. Source: LTS Guide to Policymakers, 2020, p. 33
When considering the suitability of different approaches as analytical inputs, it is important to note that the determination of a country’s highest possible ambition level will depend on global as well as national considerations. As no country functions in isolation, global technology trends play an important role in determining what is possible. These technology trends need to be considered in the national context. This can play out very differently in countries depending on the extent of lock-in to existing infrastructure, domestic market readiness, cultural norms and institutional capacities. This underlines the importance of a broad participatory national process. While transformative technologies may be more mature and available in some sectors than others, it is important that the planning process includes a sufficiently broad sector coverage to ensure that the highest possible ambition can be achieved with the most efficient use of resources. The oversight of potential levers in some sectors could lead to higher overall costs. Determining the highest possible level of ambition is therefore a carefully designed process in which national processes make best possible use of the latest available insights from both bottom-up and top-down analytical approaches. The relative strengths and weaknesses of these approaches as an analytical input to a national-driven process for determining highest possible ambition are summarised in the table below. Comparison of different modelling approaches to take as an analytical input for determining a country’s highest possible ambition for domestic GHG emission reduction. Source: NDC Update report 2019, p.29.
Overview of submitted LTS as of December 2019We reviewed all 14 LTS that had been submitted by December 2019 considering the aspects highlighted above. While the content and process seem to vary greatly, common highlights can be seen for certain key elements. Stakeholder engagement and participatory processes are a key element of LTSs, most LTSs link to or plan the elaboration of national plans and regulations, a majority of countries present their LTS as “living documents” and although there are discrepancies in the understanding of Paris Aligned pathways, we see positive developments in countries aiming for net-zero emissions. Long-term Strategy Tracker (See full table)Highlights of submitted LTSs
Relevant reports of LTS guidance:
Tracking LTS submission:
When achieving objectives requires a trade off short term objectives should usually take precedence over long term objectives?When trad offs have to be made between achieving long run and short run objectives, long run objectives should take precedence (unless the achievement of one or more short run performance targets has unique importance).
What is the correct order of strategy making and executing process?Therefore, management teams employ a strategy creation process which includes: (1) development of the strategic vision, (2) setting objectives, (3) crafting a strategy, (4) executing that strategy, and (5) monitoring the strategy and making the necessary adjustments.
What is strategy making process?The strategy making process is the activity by which an organisation defines its strategy and ensures that the defined strategy becomes a reality rather than just an abstract wish list. It involves not only coming up with a strategy but also planning how to execute it and adjusting to unexpected events.
When a company reaches a strategic inflection point?A strategic inflection point is a time period when an organization must respond to disruptive change in the business environment effectively or face deterioration. An inflection point, in general, is a decisive moment in the course of some entity, event or situation that marks the start of significant change.
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