What characterizes the fourth stage postindustrial of the demographic transition model?

The demographic transition

Frank W. Notestein (1902-1983)

To understand the variety of demographic regimes found across the world, it is necessary to understand the history of demographic change globally.

The demographic transition theory is a generalised description of the changing pattern of mortality, fertility and growth rates as societies move from one demographic regime to another. The term was first coined by the American demographer Frank W. Notestein in the mid-twentieth century, but it has since been elaborated and expanded upon by many others.

There are four stages to the classical demographic transition model:

• Stage 1: Pre-transition
• Characterised by high birth rates, and high fluctuating death rates.
• Population growth was kept low by Malthusian "preventative" (late age at marriage) and "positive" (famine, war, pestilence) checks.
• Stage 2: Early transition
• During the early stages of the transition, the death rate begins to fall.
• As birth rates remain high, the population starts to grow rapidly.
• Stage 3: Late transition
• Birth rates start to decline.
• The rate of population growth decelerates.
• Stage 4: Post-transition
• Post-transitional societies are characterised by low birth and low death rates.
• Population growth is negligible, or even enters a decline.

These four stages are depicted on the graph below.

The Demographic Transition Model was developed by the American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929. DTM depicts the demographic history of a country. It refers to the transition from high birth and high death rates to low birth and low death rates regime as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system.

The five stages of the demographic transition model

Stage One: The Pre-Industrial Stage (highly fluctuating – high stationary)

• Both birth rate and death rate are high
• Population fluctuates due to incidence of famine, disease and war.
• High infant mortality and very low life expectancy.
• Rural societies dependent on subsistence agriculture.
• Total population is low and balanced due to high birth rates and high death rates.

Example: No country as a whole at present retains the characteristics of stage 1. However, it applies only to the most remote societies on earth such as the isolated tribes in Amazon with little or no contact with the outside world.
All human populations are believed to have had this stage until the late 18th century, when many countries in Western Europe were able to cross this stage.

Stage Two: The Industrial Revolution (early expanding) –very rapid increase

• Death rate falls sharply due to improvements in health care and sanitation. Birth rates remain high. Total population grows very quickly.
• Improvement in farming technology and increase in food supply
• Better nutrition, water supply, sewage, and personal hygiene and improvement in public health system .
• Increase in female literacy combined with public health education programs

Example: poorest developing countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bolivia, sub-Saharan countries such as Niger, Uganda and middle east countries like Yemen, Palestinian Territories are still in stage 2.

Stage Three: Post-Industrial Revolution (late expanding) –increase slows down

• Birth rate falls due to the availability of contraception.
• Reduction of child labour- fewer children being needed to work in farm due to mechanization of farming
• Death rate stays at low level due to improved health conditions
• An increase in the status and education of women
• Total population still rises rapidly due to population momentum.
• The gap between birth and death rates narrows down

Example: Most developing countries that have registered significant social and economic advances are in stage 3, such as Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon, South Africa, India.
On the way:South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Namibia, Kenya and Ghana have begun to move into stage 3

Stage Four: Stabilization (low stationary) – very slow increase

• Birth control is widely available and there is a desire for smaller families.
• Both birth and death rate are low
• Total population is still high, but it is balanced by a low birth rate and a low death rate.

Example: Newly industrialized countries such as South Korea and Taiwan have just entered stage 4.United States, Canada, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, most of Europe, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Brazil, Singapore, Iran, China, Turkey, Thailand and Mauritius

Stage Five: Declining population

• Low birth rate along with an aging population leads to declining population
• Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases like obesity, stress and diabetic.
• Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level

Example:  Countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia leading to a shrinking population

What happens to birth and death rates?
As populations move through the stages of the model, the gap between birth rate and death rate first widens, then narrows. In stage 1 the two rates are balanced. In stage 2 they diverge, as the death rate falls relative to the birth rate. In stage 3 they converge again, as the birth rate falls relative to the death rate. Finally in stage 4 the death and birth rates are balanced again but at a much lower level.

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